A coordinated population projection, conducted by Federal German Statistics Office shows that higher fertility and permanently high net immigration would only be able to slow the ageing process rather than to prevent it.
The starting point of this 14th coordinated population projection is a population which in 2018 is characterised by the younger cohorts having increased in numbers due to net immigration and higher birth rates in the last few years. At the same time, the baby boom generation have reached higher working age. The number of older people has already grown markedly. This is why the future changes are expected to be less dramatic than shown in previous projections.
The number of people at working age between 20 and 66 years is expected to decrease about 4 to 6 million by 2035. In thirty years from now, one in ten inhabitants will be 80 or over. For the overall population, there is a wider range of possible developments. The population is expected to grow at least until 2024. With a moderate development of fertility and life expectancy, it would start to decrease in 2040 at the latest, even if net immigration should remain permanently at a high level. If, however, permanently high net immigration should be accompanied by a further increase in fertility, the population would stabilise after the increase mentioned above. Depending on the development of the demographic factors, there would be between 74 and 84 million people in Germany in 2060.
Photo – Unsplash, Rob Curran
Infographics – Federal German Statistics Office